A Book's First Month on Sale (What It Means For Long Term Success)

A Literal Literary Loser Gets Out the Crystal Ball

In my April 22, 2025 post, “Is 3000 Books Sold a Success?” I quoted the following statistic:

Traditionally published books sell around 3,000 copies on average, with only 250 of those sales in the first year.

Along with many other financially depressing fun facts.

My latest historical fiction novel, “Go On Pretending” came out May 1, 2025. Yes, I realize that technically means it has been out for two months now, but I didn’t get the sales numbers for the first month until the end of the second month because… reasons.

So how did “Go On Pretending” do during its first month on sale?

For the month of May 2025, “Go On Pretending” sold:

Direct sales: 4 copies

Ingram: 116 copies

KDP: 189

That’s a total of 309 copies for the month of May.

Throw in the copies sold during the pre-order phase (hey, remember how I spectacularly did — then didn’t — botch my pre-orders?) and, as of May 30, 2025, “Go On Pretending” has sold 386 copies (I don’t have the breakdown yet of how many were ebooks, how many were paperbacks, and how many hardcovers).

So, what does this mean?

Well, to start, it means that, in one month, I’ve sold more units than the average traditionally published book sells in one year. Yay, me!

Am I on track to sell 3000 copies over a lifetime?

Maybe. As I wrote earlier, my previous historical fiction, “My Mother’s Secret: A Novel of the Jewish Autonomous Region" released November 2022 from the same publisher as “Go On Pretending” had, as of June 2024, sold 2720 copies.

Since then, it has sold 212 more copies, bringing its lifetime sales to 2932. So that’s aaaaaaalmost 3000.

Does that mean I am going to sit back, rest on my laurels, and reduce my endless self-promotion?

In the words of Bugs Bunny, “He don’t know me very well, do he?”

I will do no such thing. I will continue promoting “My Mother’s Secret: A Novel of the Jewish Autonomous Region.” I will continue promoting “Go On Pretending.” (Please imagine the above lines are being delivered by Winston Churchill in the cadence of: We shall not flag or fail. We shall go on to the end. We shall fight in France, we shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender. And then ponder how often you encounter Winston Churchill being juxtaposed with Bugs Bunny. I am a woman of eclectic interests.)

Will “My Mother’s Secret: A Novel of the Jewish Autonomous Region” beat the lifetime average sales of 3000 copies? I am going to go out on a limb and say yes. It only needs 68 more purchases to hit that number, and I believe it can do that. Whether by the end of this year or by the end of the decade, the end goal appears to be within reach.

Will “Go On Pretending” follow suit? That’s hard to say.

It’s first two months on sale, “My Mother’s Secret: A Novel of the Jewish Autonomous Region” sold 1742 units. That’s a lot more than “Go On Pretending,” which, even if the second month’s sales match the first, would fall well below that number.

However, for its first month, “My Mother’s Secret: A Novel of the Jewish Autonomous Region” was offered for $.99 cent sale, which “Go On Pretending” wasn’t. This might explain the discrepancy. (You know what else might explain the discrepancy? People read “My Mother’s Secret: A Novel of the Jewish Autonomous Region,” hated it with a white (red? Blue?), hot passion, vowed never to read anything by me again, and to make sure their friends, family, and random people they met on the street failed to do so, as well. Either scenario is equally possible. Yes, I have a highly inflated sense of my place in the world.)

I have written a lot here about the push and pull between making more sales and making more money. They are not always one and the same.

A book’s first month on sale is supposed to be make or break. It tells you how the work will perform over a lifetime, the same way a movie’s first weekend’s gross is supposed to do, or the ratings for a television show’s first episode.

I’m not sure if that’s entirely true, though. Some movies are sleeper hits. Their box office actually goes up after the initial release thanks to good word of mouth. Conversely, some TV shows open strong, but continue to drop week after week. The pilot episode’s ratings are usually due to effective marketing. Subsequent episodes are dependent on the actual (perceived) quality of the program. (Please don’t email me about all the shows you loved, which were fabulous, and were unjustly, prematurely cancelled. “Perceived” is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that declaration.)

Books could go either way. Strong initial sales can peter out once the hype dies down and readers decide whether it was actually worth it. Or weak sales can pick up once rave reviews come in.

Or neither thing can happen, and the product in question can mediocrely limp along into oblivion.

In any case, you know me! Whatever does happen, I’ll be back here with my full — if ego-deflating — reports.

Until then, if you’d like to purchase either “My Mother’s Secret: A Novel of the Jewish Autonomous Region” or “Go On Pretending” — and get your copies signed in-person! — please join me this Monday, July 14 at Congregation Ansche Chesed on the Upper West Side of Manhattan for their “Scribbles on the Roof” series. There will be wine! (RSVP at this link.)

And speaking of links… hey, remember how only last week I wrote about how I was going to try to include fewer links in my posts in an attempt to maximize clicks to the ones I did include? (Notice how I’m not linking to that declaration. What amazing self-control I am showing!)

Yeah, as you can see, that didn’t work out so well. I am obviously more addicted to that demon dopamine than I thought. (Or maybe, the academic in me just can’t bear to site something without sourcing it.) You will notice that the only places where I resisted linking was in the buy links to my books, which would seem to be the most important places to link. How’s that for cutting off your nose to spite your face!

So because I’ve already fallen off the wagon, I might as well go with one more link before I sign off. Below, please find my interview with “The Jewish Lens” and “the man who controls the media!”